Severe winds and tornadoes: Difference between revisions

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[[File:Tornadoes.jpg|thumb|600px|Tornado (Source: Royal Meteorological Society<ref>Retrieved from https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/tornadoes-around-world on Oct 24, 2024.</ref>)]]
== Overview ==
== Overview ==
A tornado is a narrow, violently rotating column of air that extends from a thunderstorm to the ground. They can destroy buildings, flip cars, and create deadly flying debris, causing extensive damages to infrastructure, homes, and businesses within minutes<ref>https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Damage</ref>. It is one of the highly destructive severe weather phenomena in the US. Between 1983 and 2024, severe storms, including tornadoes have caused over 500 billion dollars loss in the US, the second largest disaster in terms of loss<ref name=":0" />. Readers can read more about tornadoes from many resources, including the [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ NOAA Storm Prediction Center], [https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/tornadoes/ NOAA National Severe Storm Laboratory] website and the wikipedia page of [[wikipedia:Tornado|tornado]].   
A tornado is a narrow, violently rotating column of air that extends from a thunderstorm to the ground. They can destroy buildings, flip cars, and create deadly flying debris, causing extensive damages to infrastructure, homes, and businesses within minutes<ref>https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Damage</ref>. Tornadoes occur in many parts of the world, including Australia, Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America; even New Zealand reports about 20 tornadoes each year. Two of the highest concentrations of tornadoes outside the U.S. are Argentina and Bangladesh. Readers can read more about tornadoes from many resources, including the [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ NOAA Storm Prediction Center], [https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/tornadoes/ NOAA National Severe Storm Laboratory] website, and the wikipedia page of [[wikipedia:Tornado|tornado]].   
 
Climate change has changed the path and behaviors of tornadoes. Although the number of days with tornadoes has fallen, other trends are increasing, including outbreaks with 30 or more tornados in one day, the density of tornado clusters (i.e., tornadoes are closer geographically), and the strength of tornadoes. The distribution of tornadoes has also shifted eastward. These trends have not been directly linked to climate change.https://www.c2es.org/content/tornadoes-and-climate-change/ 
 
Future of tornadoes: 
 
Studying tornadoes from a financial risk perspective is crucial because the unpredictable nature of these events poses a serious threat to industries, insurance companies, and local economies. Understanding the frequency, impact, and potential damages of tornadoes allows businesses, investors, and insurers to better assess and mitigate the financial risks associated with these extreme weather events, ensuring more resilient financial planning and disaster preparedness.     
 
- How severe is a tornado? Tornados are measured using the Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF Scale), which rates tornados based on estimated wind speeds based on the damage caused. 
 
Tornadoes occur in many parts of the world, including Australia, Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America. Even New Zealand reports about 20 tornadoes each year. Two of the highest concentrations of tornadoes outside the U.S. are Argentina and Bangladesh.


- impacts of tornado: Tornadoes can destroy buildings, flip cars, and create deadly flying debris. It is one of the highly destructive severe weather phenomena in the US. Between 1983 and 2024, severe storms, including tornadoes have caused over 500 billion dollars loss in the US, the second largest disaster in terms of loss<ref name=":0">https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/summary-stats#:~:text=Time%20Period%2C%20Last%20Year%20(2023)%2C%20All%20Years,15%2C%2042%2C%20Events/Year%2C%2028.0%2C%208.8%2C%201.5%2C%204.2%2C</ref>.  
The behavior and path of tornadoes has changed over the past few decades. In the United States, the number of tornado days per year has fallen since the 1970s, but the number of tornadoes occurring on those days has increased. This means that when tornadoes strike, they are more likely to occur in clusters or outbreaks, sometimes with 30 or more tornadoes in a single day<ref name=":1">https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/9/</ref>. The extent of the season over which such tornado activity occurs is increasing as well -- they start earlier in the season. In addition, tornado outbreaks are becoming more geographically concentrated, with tornadoes occurring closer together, and their intensity has increased. Furthermore, the distribution of tornadoes has shifted eastward, placing new regions at greater risk of damage and financial loss.


Most of the damage from a tornado happens one of two direct ways: exposure to extreme wind or impact by flying debris. In a developed area, a tornado essentially acts as a giant blender full of millions of small and large projectiles--boards, broken glass, nails, shingles, gravel, wire, cables, sheet metal, hardware, tree parts, whole trees, rocks, bricks, appliances, furniture, household items, even vehicles and large parts of houses. A dump truck thrown into a building by a nearby subvortex, for example, can do enormous damage even if the wind at the building site isn't that strong on its own. Sometimes a tornado will weaken a structure enough that parts or all of it collapses later due to structural weakness and imbalances. This is why people should not enter a heavily damaged home or other building until fire officials and/or an engineer can survey it. Another reason is that hazardous materials may have been released by the tornado--such as natural gas, medical waste, gasoline, other dangerous chemicals, or sewage. Such "HAZMAT" releases, along with live electrical wires, also can be a cause of indirect tornado damage--either chemically or through fires. Broken water pipes can cause considerable water and flood damage also<ref>https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Damage</ref>
Climate change is likely to amplify the observed trend in tornado activity. While current climate models are unable to directly simulate tornadoes due to their coarse resolution, researchers use metrics that assess the "environment" conducive to tornado formation based on large-scale variables like temperature, humidity, and wind. Consistent findings suggest that with future warming, the frequency of severe tornadoes is expected to increase, and the storms themselves will likely become stronger.<ref name=":1" />


You can read more about the EF Scale on the [https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/tornadoes/ NOAA National Severe Storm Laboratory] website. National Weather Service website. https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/tornadoes/
== Implication for finance ==
   
The financial impacts of tornadoes are both significant and far-reaching. These powerful storms disrupt local economies, damage infrastructure, and interrupt supply chains, leading to substantial insured and uninsured losses. They can be especially costly in densely populated regions, such as the central and eastern United States, where large concentrations of assets are vulnerable. In fact, tornadoes are one of the highly costly severe weather events in the US -- together with other convective storms such as hailstorms and derechos, they are categorized as Billion-dollar Weather and Climate disasters. Between 1983 and 2024, severe storms—including tornadoes—resulted in over $500 billion in total losses, making them the second-largest category of weather-related disasters in terms of economic damage. In 2023 alone, tornadoes accounted for over $1.5 billion in losses across the United States.<ref>The figure is based on self-calculations using data provided by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data. </ref>  


- observed trends of tornado: 
The shifts in tornado behavior in recent decades have further amplified these financial risks. The increased frequency of tornado clusters, growing storm intensity, and an earlier onset of tornado season contribute to rising insured and uninsured losses. Projections of future tornado activity suggest that these trends will likely persist, presenting additional challenges for risk management. Governments, insurers, and businesses must adapt to these evolving risks through comprehensive financial planning. The economic damage caused by tornadoes extends beyond immediate physical destruction; prolonged business interruptions, the cost of property repairs, inventory losses, and workforce displacement often lead to extended recovery periods and escalating costs.


- future of tornado.
== Data ==
 
== Data: ==
<div style="margin-left: 90px;">
<div style="margin-left: 90px;">
=== Historical Tornado data ===
{| class="wikitable" style="width:70em"
{| class="wikitable" style="width:70em"
|+
|+
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|-
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|Severe weather database by NOAA
|Severe weather database by NOAA
|Data for tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind, as compiled from ''NWS Storm Data''. Tornado reports exist back to 1950 while hail and damaging wind events date from 1955. Information is provided on observation time, location, storm magnitude, as well as mortality, injuries, and estimated losses for property and crops. Please read the [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/SPC_severe_database_description.pdf format specification] for more information.
|Data for tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind, as compiled from ''[https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ NWS Storm Events Database]''. Tornado reports exist back to 1950 while hail and damaging wind events date from 1955. Information is provided on observation time, location, storm magnitude, as well as mortality, injuries, and estimated losses for property and crops. Please read the [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/data/SPC_severe_database_description.pdf format specification] for more information.
|[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Access] (Note: The CSV data files are located further down the webpage.)
|[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Access] (Note: The CSV data files are located further down the webpage.)
|-
|-
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|[https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/severe-weather-data-inventory Access]
|[https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/severe-weather-data-inventory Access]
|-
|-
|
|Storm Prediction Center of NOAA
|
|The Storm Prediction Center of NOAA contains a lot of useful resources, including climatology and statistics of tornadoes.
|
|[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Access]
|-
|-
|
|European Severe Weather Database
|
|It is a platform that compiles reports on severe weather events across Europe, including tornadoes, hail, and flash floods. It is managed by the European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) and aims to improve weather forecasting and public safety. Users can contribute by submitting reports, enhancing the database's value for research and analysis.
|
|[https://eswd.eu/ Access]
|-
|Wind Explorer by Argonne National Laboratory
|Historical and projected average wind speed values. This dataset can be used to investigate risks from wind-related hazards, or capacity for wind energy infrastructure.
|[https://climrr.anl.gov/mapexplorer Access]
|-
|Storm counts by NOAA Storm Prediction Center
|Storm counts provided by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center are available at both the national and state levels and are organized by month.
|[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/summary/ Access]; [https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series/ytd/6?mean=true View]
|}
|}
</div>
</div>


 
== References ==
 
The Storm Prediction Center of NOAA contains a lot of useful resources, including climatology and statistics of tornadoes: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
 
 
 
European Severe Weather Database https://eswd.eu/
 
'''Global Disaster Database (EM-DAT)'''
 
 
 
[https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tornadoes/202406 monthly tornado report]
 
[https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/tornadocount tornado count]
 
wind speed averages: https://disgeoportal.egs.anl.gov/portal/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a69fcf899d91410799233f104b025552; https://climrr.anl.gov/mapexplorer;

Latest revision as of 16:08, 24 October 2024

Tornado (Source: Royal Meteorological Society[1])

Overview

A tornado is a narrow, violently rotating column of air that extends from a thunderstorm to the ground. They can destroy buildings, flip cars, and create deadly flying debris, causing extensive damages to infrastructure, homes, and businesses within minutes[2]. Tornadoes occur in many parts of the world, including Australia, Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America; even New Zealand reports about 20 tornadoes each year. Two of the highest concentrations of tornadoes outside the U.S. are Argentina and Bangladesh. Readers can read more about tornadoes from many resources, including the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, NOAA National Severe Storm Laboratory website, and the wikipedia page of tornado.

The behavior and path of tornadoes has changed over the past few decades. In the United States, the number of tornado days per year has fallen since the 1970s, but the number of tornadoes occurring on those days has increased. This means that when tornadoes strike, they are more likely to occur in clusters or outbreaks, sometimes with 30 or more tornadoes in a single day[3]. The extent of the season over which such tornado activity occurs is increasing as well -- they start earlier in the season. In addition, tornado outbreaks are becoming more geographically concentrated, with tornadoes occurring closer together, and their intensity has increased. Furthermore, the distribution of tornadoes has shifted eastward, placing new regions at greater risk of damage and financial loss.

Climate change is likely to amplify the observed trend in tornado activity. While current climate models are unable to directly simulate tornadoes due to their coarse resolution, researchers use metrics that assess the "environment" conducive to tornado formation based on large-scale variables like temperature, humidity, and wind. Consistent findings suggest that with future warming, the frequency of severe tornadoes is expected to increase, and the storms themselves will likely become stronger.[3]

Implication for finance

The financial impacts of tornadoes are both significant and far-reaching. These powerful storms disrupt local economies, damage infrastructure, and interrupt supply chains, leading to substantial insured and uninsured losses. They can be especially costly in densely populated regions, such as the central and eastern United States, where large concentrations of assets are vulnerable. In fact, tornadoes are one of the highly costly severe weather events in the US -- together with other convective storms such as hailstorms and derechos, they are categorized as Billion-dollar Weather and Climate disasters. Between 1983 and 2024, severe storms—including tornadoes—resulted in over $500 billion in total losses, making them the second-largest category of weather-related disasters in terms of economic damage. In 2023 alone, tornadoes accounted for over $1.5 billion in losses across the United States.[4]

The shifts in tornado behavior in recent decades have further amplified these financial risks. The increased frequency of tornado clusters, growing storm intensity, and an earlier onset of tornado season contribute to rising insured and uninsured losses. Projections of future tornado activity suggest that these trends will likely persist, presenting additional challenges for risk management. Governments, insurers, and businesses must adapt to these evolving risks through comprehensive financial planning. The economic damage caused by tornadoes extends beyond immediate physical destruction; prolonged business interruptions, the cost of property repairs, inventory losses, and workforce displacement often lead to extended recovery periods and escalating costs.

Data

Dataset Description Data Access
Severe weather events archive by NOAA Organized severe thunderstorms archived by Storm Prediction Center of NOAA. The weather events covered include tornadoes, hail, and strong winds. The archive provides information on observation time, location (with detailed latitude and longitude), and estimated wind speed. Access
Severe weather database by NOAA Data for tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind, as compiled from NWS Storm Events Database. Tornado reports exist back to 1950 while hail and damaging wind events date from 1955. Information is provided on observation time, location, storm magnitude, as well as mortality, injuries, and estimated losses for property and crops. Please read the format specification for more information. Access (Note: The CSV data files are located further down the webpage.)
Severe weather data inventory (SWDI) by NCEI of NOAA[5] An integrated database of U.S. severe weather records that provides access to data from a variety of sources in the NCEI archive. SWDI includes multiple search and access methods for records that cover particular time periods and geographic regions. Data are currently available in Shapefile (for GIS), KMZ (for Google Earth), CSV (comma-separated), and XML formats. Note that no additional quality control measures are taken beyond the processing that takes place during data archival. Access
Storm Prediction Center of NOAA The Storm Prediction Center of NOAA contains a lot of useful resources, including climatology and statistics of tornadoes. Access
European Severe Weather Database It is a platform that compiles reports on severe weather events across Europe, including tornadoes, hail, and flash floods. It is managed by the European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) and aims to improve weather forecasting and public safety. Users can contribute by submitting reports, enhancing the database's value for research and analysis. Access
Wind Explorer by Argonne National Laboratory Historical and projected average wind speed values. This dataset can be used to investigate risks from wind-related hazards, or capacity for wind energy infrastructure. Access
Storm counts by NOAA Storm Prediction Center Storm counts provided by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center are available at both the national and state levels and are organized by month. Access; View

References