Aridity and Drought: Difference between revisions

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Created page with "'''Drought''' is a prolonged period of abnormally low precipitation that can lead to water shortages, impacting ecosystems, agriculture, water supply, and various human activities. It is a complex natural hazard with significant environmental, social, and economic consequences. Here are key aspects of drought: <br> ===Types of Drought=== Depending on the variables used to characterize it and the systems or sectors being impacted, drought may be classified in different t..."
 
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'''Drought''' is a prolonged period of abnormally low precipitation that can lead to water shortages, impacting ecosystems, agriculture, water supply, and various human activities. It is a complex natural hazard with significant environmental, social, and economic consequences. Here are key aspects of drought: <br>
'''Drought''' is a prolonged period of abnormally low precipitation that can lead to water shortages, impacting ecosystems, agriculture, water supply, and various human activities. It is a complex natural hazard with significant environmental, social, and economic consequences. Here are key aspects of drought: <br>
 
[[File:Drought.jpg|thumb|700px| Drought (Source: WMO<ref>Retrieved from https://wmo.int/topics/drought on Oct 24, 2024.</ref>)]]
===Types of Drought===
== Types of Drought ==
Depending on the variables used to characterize it and the systems or sectors being impacted, drought may be classified in different types, such as
Depending on the variables used to characterize it and the systems or sectors being impacted, drought may be classified in different types, such as
* '''Meteorological Drought''': Lack of rainfall or below-average precipitation for an extended period characterizes meteorological drought. This is the most common form of drought.
* '''Meteorological drought''': Lack of rainfall or below-average precipitation for an extended period characterizes meteorological drought. This is the most common form of drought.


* '''Hydrological Drought''': Hydrological drought refers to water shortage in streams or storages such as reservoirs, lakes, lagoons, and groundwater which usually occurs due to prolonged dry conditions.  
* '''Hydrological drought''': Hydrological drought refers to water shortage in streams or storages such as reservoirs, lakes, lagoons, and groundwater which usually occurs due to prolonged dry conditions.  


* '''Agricultural and Ecological Drought''': Agricultural drought relates to soil moisture deficits that affect crop growth. It occurs when there's not enough water in the soil to meet the needs of crops.
* '''Agricultural and ecological drought''': Agricultural drought relates to soil moisture deficits that affect crop growth. It occurs when there's not enough water in the soil to meet the needs of crops.


(Delete this maybe)''Drought can happen on a wide range of timescales – from "'''flash droughts'''" on a scale of weeks and characterized by a sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions to multi-year or decadal rainfall deficits – sometimes termed "'''megadroughts'''"''.  
== Impacts of Drought ==
Drought has extensive impacts across multiple sectors'','' affecting ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, energy production, commerce, public health, and infrastructure stability<ref>https://www.drought.gov/sectors/</ref>.


===Impacts of Drought===
* '''Ecosystems and Biodiversity''' Changes in soil moisture and surface water can alter the rate of carbon uptake by ecosystems, affecting the carbon cycle and overall ecosystem health. They also alter suitable climate zones for wild species, potentially leading to habitat loss and changes in species distributions. The altered conditions can increase can increase the prevalence of pests and pathogen-carrying vectors. Prolonged dry conditions increase the risk of wildfires, as vegetation becomes more susceptible to ignition.
(''Notes from Xiaojuan: List the sectors impacted by drought and create separate page for each sector; the webpage should be information on what and how climate hazards impact the sector'')
* '''Agriculture''' Reduction in water availability challenges the water supplies needed for irrigation, affecting crop yields. Insufficient water can stress crops and forests, affecting crop quality. Severe water stress can lead to crop failure, especially during key developmental stages or extended drought periods. Drought can also contribute to insect outbreaks, increases in wildfire, and altered rates of carbon, nutrient, and water cycling—impacting agricultural production.
''From IPCC Ch12.3 (TB audited): Changes in soil moisture and surface water can shift the rate of carbon uptake by ecosystems and alter suitable climate zones for wild species and agricultural cultivation (Feng and Fu, 2013; Garcia et al., 2014; Huang et al., 2016a; Schlaepfer et al., 2017; Fatemi et al., 2018; IPCC, 2019c) as well as the prevalence of related pests and pathogen-carrying vectors (Paritsis and Veblen, 2011; Smith et al., 2020). Water table depth, in relation to rooting depth, is also important for farms and forests under dry conditions (Feng et al., 2006). A reduction in water availability (via aridity or hydrological drought) challenges water supplies needed for for municipal, industrial, agriculture and hydropower use (Schaeffer et al., 2012; Arnell and Lloyd-Hughes, 2014; Schewe et al., 2014; Gosling and Arnell, 2016; van Vliet et al., 2016).
* '''Livestock''' Drought can cause grain prices to spike, making it too expensive for ranchers to buy. This forces them to make critical decisions such as reducing herd sizes, sending cattle to feedlots, leasing additional pasture, or purchasing alternative feed like hay or grain.
* '''Power and Energy''' (copied from drought.gov) Production of all types of energy, including electricity, requires water. Because the energy sector is dependent on water availability, drought can severely impact energy systems. 
** Thermoelectric electricity generation''.'' Thermoelectric power plants use steam turbines to generate electricity using a variety of fuel sources. Large amounts of water are needed to generate steam and for cooling. Drought conditions can result in reduced plant efficiency and generation capacity and can also impact the supply chain for coal, natural gas, biofuel, and nuclear fuel.  
** Hydroelectric power generation''.'' Hydroelectric power is generated by funneling water through power plants contained in dam structures. When water levels in reservoirs become low, the force of water pressure required to turn hydro turbine blades is reduced, which affects productivity.
** Hydraulic fracturing and refining. Reduced water availability affects the production and refining of petroleum and natural gas. During droughts, hydraulic fracturing (or fracking) and fuel refining operations can require alternative water supplies or may be forced to temporarily shut down. Shutdowns can increase costs, which in turn can raise consumer prices.
** Biofuels. Reduced water availability and decreased soil moisture during drought can reduce the cultivation of biofuel feedstocks.
* '''Manufacturing''': Manufacturers use water for many processes, including fabrication, washing, cooling, and transporting goods. Water is also often incorporated into products themselves. Reductions in the amount of available water can reduce manufacturing productivity or even lead to temporary closures of key manufacturing facilities.
* '''Navigation and Transportation'''  Drought impacts port and waterway transportation and supply chains, resulting in increased transportation costs. Higher temperatures that often coexist with drought can impact roads, airport runways, and rail lines.
* '''Recreation and Tourism''' Drought impacts various water-dependent activities like boating and skiing, leading to reduced revenues in tourism and recreation sectors. Increased wildfire risk during droughts further affects tourism by limiting access and deterring visitors due to safety concerns. Additionally, degraded water resources from drought can lower water quality and reduce streamflow, impacting hunting and fishing opportunities.


Low flow volume and intermittency thresholds can indicate reductions in dissolved oxygen, more concentrated pollutants, and higher stream temperatures relevant for ecosystems, water resource quality and thermal power plant cooling (Feeley et al., 2008; Döll and Schmied, 2012; Schaeffer et al., 2012; Prudhomme et al., 2014; van Vliet et al., 2016). Low water levels may also restrict waterway navigation for commerce and recreation (Forzieri et al., 2018).
* '''Public health'''  Drought increases disease infection rates. Low flow volume and higher stream temperature during drought can lead to reduced dissolved oxygen, and more concentrated pollutants, posing health risks for human and aquatic life.  
* '''Water Utilities'''  Drought can result in impacts to water utility operations, including:
** Loss of water pressure and water supply
** Poor water quality from the source that may require additional treatment to meet drinking water standards
** Inability to access alternative and supplementary water sources because of high demand by and competition from other users
** Increased customer demand
** Increased costs and reduced revenues related to responding to drought impacts.
* '''Infrastructure''' The alternation of dry and wet spells can lead to swelling and shrinkage of clay soils, causing structural damage to buildings.


12.3.2.7 Agricultural and Ecological Drought
== Observed and Projected changes in Drought (TBA) ==
Agricultural and ecological drought indices relate to the ability of plants to meet growth and transpiration needs (Table 11.3; Zargar et al., 2011; Lobell et al., 2015; Pedro-Monzonís et al., 2015; Bachmair et al., 2016; Wehner et al., 2017; Naumann et al., 2018) and the timing and duration of droughts can lead to substantially different impacts (Peña-Gallardo et al., 2019). Drought stress for agriculture and ecosystems is difficult to directly observe, and therefore scientists use a variety of drought indices (Table 11.3), proxy information about changes in precipitation supply and reference evapotranspiration demand, the ratio of actual/potential evapotranspiration or a deficit in available soil water content, particularly at rooting level (Park Williams et al., 2013; Trnka et al., 2014; C.D. Allen et al., 2015; Svoboda and Fuchs, 2017; Mäkinen et al., 2018; Otkin et al., 2018). Severe water stress can lead to crop failure, in particular when droughts persist for an extended period or occur during key plant developmental stages (Hatfield et al., 2014; Jolly et al., 2015; Leng and Hall, 2019). Projections of high wind speed and low humidity (even for just a portion of the day) can also inform studies examining fruit desiccation and rice cracking (Grotjahn, 2021). Drought also raises disease infection rates for West Nile virus (Paull et al., 2017), and the alternation of dry and wet spells induces swelling and shrinkage of clay soils that can lead to sinkholes and destabilize buildings (Hadji et al., 2014).''
or called "How does CO2 increase impact drought"


== Drought-related Data ==


=== Drought Indices and Indicators ===
Droughts are often analyzed using indices that are measures of drought ''severity'', ''duration'' and ''frequency''. There are many drought indices published in the scientific literature. The [https://www.droughtmanagement.info/ Integrated Drought Management Programme] provides a comprehensive review of existing drought indices and indicators, evaluating them based on their ease of use and type. A download link for each indicator is also included. Climdex, led by the University of New South Wales in Sydney and involving partners across the globe, provides a list of useful indices and their relevance to each sector. 


*'''Water Scarcity''': Reduced precipitation and water availability lead to water scarcity, affecting both surface water and groundwater resources.
Below is a list of some of the most commonly used drought indices based on IPCC AR6 report<ref>https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVI.pdf</ref>, categorized according to the three drought types introduced earlier. <div style="margin-left: 100px;">
*'''Crop Failures''': Insufficient water for crops can result in reduced yields, economic losses for farmers, and potential food shortages.
{| class="wikitable"
*'''Ecosystem Stress''': Drought can stress ecosystems, leading to decreased vegetation, habitat loss, and disruptions in wildlife populations.
|'''Indices'''
*'''Water Supply Challenges''': Municipal water supplies may face shortages, impacting communities, industries, and essential services.
|'''Brief Introduction'''
*'''Wildfires''': Prolonged dry conditions increase the risk of wildfires, as vegetation becomes more susceptible to ignition.
|'''Data Access'''
*'''Livestock and Wildlife''': Drought affects the availability of water and forage for livestock, leading to challenges in animal husbandry. Wildlife may face similar challenges.
|'''Recommended Usage'''
*'''Economic Impact''': Drought can have significant economic consequences, including reduced agricultural productivity, increased food prices, and impacts on various industries.
|-
*'''Human Health''': Drought can indirectly affect human health through its impact on water supply, food availability, and the potential for conflicts over scarce resources.
|Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
 
|The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used index to characterize meteorological drought on a range of timescales. It can characterize drought at different time scales which correspond with the time availability of different water resources (e.g. soil moisture, snowpack, groundwater, river discharge and reservoir storage). The SPI can be compared across regions with markedly different climates.<ref>Keyantash, John & National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds). Last modified 2023-08-19 "The Climate Data Guide: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).” Retrieved from <nowiki>https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/standardized-precipitation-index-spi</nowiki> on 2024-07-19.</ref>
===Observed and Projected changes in Drought (TBA)===
|
or called "How does CO2 increase impact drought"
* [http://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds298.0/ Gridded SPI for Global Land Surface (1949-2012) generated from CRU 3.21]
 
* [https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/nadm/indices/spi/div#select-fo%E2%80%A6 Current SPI maps and tabular data for North America (NCDC)]
<div style="margin-left: 150px;">
* [https://hprcc.unl.edu/onlinedataservices.php Plots and archive of SPI for contiguous US back to 2003, High Plains Regional Climate Center]
[[File:Drought1.jpg|Flood image|400px]] [[File:Drought2.jpg|Flood image|400px]]  
* [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/spi_outlooks.shtml Seasonal '''outlook''' of SPI (GeoTIFF format)]
* [https://github.com/monocongo/climate_indices Python-package to calculate SPI]
|Meteorological/hydrological/ecological drought
|-
|Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)
|SPEI serves as a comprehensive drought index due to its multi-scalar nature, accommodating diverse scientific disciplines for detecting, monitoring, and analyzing droughts. SPEI assesses drought severity based on intensity and duration, identifying onset and cessation of drought episodes. Its versatility allows for comparative analysis across different climates and over time.<ref>https://spei.csic.es/home.html</ref>
|
*[https://spei.csic.es/database.html SPEIbase] (Monthly global SPEI data on a 0.5 degree grid from 1901/01 to 2022/02, based on CRU TS4.07 data set; potential evapotranspiration is estimated using Penman-Monteith method)
*[https://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=1#month=5#year=2024 SPEI data from Global Drought Monitor] (Global data on 1 degree grid from 1955/01 to present, updated monthly; potential evaportranspiration is estimated using Thornthwaite method)
*[https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/environment-social-and-governance-(esg)-data/series/EN.CLC.SPEI.XD Annual SPEI data by sovereign regions, presented by the World Bank]
*[https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-gridded-standardized-precipitation-index-spei-nclimgrid-monthly U.S. Gridded SPEI data derived from the nClimGrid-Monthly dataset] (from 1895 to present)
*[http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/SPEI R-package to calculate SPEI]
*[https://github.com/monocongo/climate_indices Python-package to calculate SPEI]
|Ecological drought
|-
|Palmer drought severity index (PDSI)
|PDSI is a regional drought index commonly used for measuring the severity of drought conditions. It is a standardized index that ranges from -10 (dry) to +10 (wet), with >4 indicating extreme wet conditions and <-4 indicating extreme dry conditions.<ref name=":0">Dai, Aiguo & National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds). Last modified 2023-08-19 "The Climate Data Guide: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI).” Retrieved from https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/palmer-drought-severity-index-pdsi on 2024-07-17.</ref>
Self-calculating PDSI is not easy, as a multitude of computation is involved. Some open-source code is available online. Here is one from Jacobi et al. (2013)(see "Supporting Information" for the code).<ref name=":1">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wrcr.20342</ref>
|
*[https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds299.0/ Monthly PDSI over global land area on a 2.5 degree grid from Aiguo Dai] (also includes ensemble mean monthly PDSI for 1900-2100 calculated using CMIP 6 data)
*[http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.pdsi.html Historical monthly (from 1850/01 to 2014/12) PDSI gridded data]
* [http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/drought.shtml Current weekly PDSI maps and info at NOAA CPC]
* [http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/climdiv/ NCDC Climate Division Data]  (text format, see 'pdsi' key)
* [https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/drought-recovery/projected Projected Palmer Hydrological Drought Index for 3/6/9 months ahead]
|Meteorological and ecological drought
|-
|Standardized runoff index (SRI)
|SRI is used to characterize hydrological drought.  
|
* [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/sri3.shtml Current SRI (3-month)] in GeoTIFF format using [https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/ NLDAS data]
|Hydrological drought
|-
|[https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ FAO Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS)]
|ASIS monitors agricultural areas with a high likelihood of water stress/drought at global, regional and country level, using satellite technology.
|
* [https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/access.jsp ASIS Raster dataset]
* [https://data.apps.fao.org/?lang=en&share=f-8d4fcc02-5b97-4a9b-931f-7c6d359d4969 ASIS interactive system]
|Agricultural drought
|-
|[https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/WhatistheUSDM.aspx U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM)]
|USDM uses a multi-indicator drought index where it integrating several key drought monitoring that measure temperatures, soil moisture, water levels in streams and lakes, snow cover, and meltwater runoff. The map is released every Thursday, showing where drought is and how bad it is across the U.S. and its territories. The map uses six classifications: normal conditions, abnormally dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought: moderate (D1), severe (D2), extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4).
|
* [https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Data.aspx USDM Data]
* [https://agindrought.unl.edu/ Agricultural commodities in drought]
|Meteorological/hydrological/ecological drought
|-
|U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI)
|The CEI evaluates the percent area of extremes in the distribution of much above/below average (top/bottom 10% of occurrence) temperatures, precipitation, drought, and tropical cyclone wind speed across the CONUS and is measured as the percent area of the U.S./region experiencing extremes for a given season.<ref>Gleason, Karin & National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds). Last modified 2023-08-21 "The Climate Data Guide: U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI).” Retrieved from <nowiki>https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/us-climate-extremes-index-cei</nowiki> on 2024-07-19.</ref>
|
* [https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/cei/graph CEI by NCEI of NOAA (from 1910 to present)]
* [https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/cei/regional-overview Regional CEI] for the 9 U.S. Standard regions is also available 
|
|-
|Consecutive Dry Days (CDD)
|Maximum number of consecutive dry days with less than 1 mm of precipitation per day
|A [https://docs.esmvaltool.org/en/latest/recipes/recipe_consecdrydays.html code] for calculating CDD is provided by Earth System Model Evaluation Tool.
|
|-
|Standardized soil moisture index (SSMI)
|SSMI is calculated as the soil moisture content normalized by the recent past climatological values at each grid point. The soil moisture content can be the content integrated over the entire soil depth or just the surface layer. Note that soil moisture data in general has greater uncertainties compared to atmospheric data. Cautions should be used when using soil moisture index to assess the drought risk in future climate scenarios.
|
* A list of soil moisture index data is provided [https://amir.eng.uci.edu/data.php here] and can be made available upon request.
* [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/US_Soil-Moisture-Monthly.php Historical observed soil moisture data] for the US can be found on NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
* Soil moisture conditions from GRACE data assimilation can be accessed [https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/groundwater-and-soil-moisture-conditions-grace-data-assimilation here]. 
* [https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/cpc-soil-moisture The global soil moisture conditions] (0.5x0.5 degree resolution) can also be found in the Climate Prediction Center.
* [https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/sport/training/articles/20170320184849_NASA-Land-Information-System-LIS-Soil-Moisture-Percentile/ Soil moisture from NASA Land Information System]
|}
</div>
</div>


==Drought related risk analysis==
<div style="margin-left: 100px;"></div>
Droughts are often analysed using indices that are measures of drought ''severity'', ''duration'' and ''frequency'' . There are many drought indices published in the scientific literature. Below are some metrics and indices used in regional assessments on droughts. They are subdivided into the three drought categories listed above.<ref>(Table 11.3 in IPCC WG1 Ch11.9)</ref>


=== Drought Forecast ===
NOAA Climate Prediction Center provides monthly and seasonal drought outlook for the U.S. The corresponding GIS data can be downloaded.


===Indices for Meteorological Drought===
* [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook using ''USDM map''] ([https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/droughtlook/index.php shapefile])
====Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)====
* [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook using ''USDM map''] ([https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/droughtlook/index.php shapefile])
====Standardized Precipitation Index Accumulated over 6 months (SPI-6)====
* [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/spi_outlooks.shtml U.S. Monthly and seasonal drought forecast using ''SPI'' (GeoTIFF)]
* [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Prediction/cfs_spi3_table.shtml U.S Subseasonal drought forecast using ''SPI'' (GeoTIFF)]
* [https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Drought/Global/CPC_GOB/MME_Opt_Persist.html#tabs-1 Global SPI forecast using NMME Multi-model ensemble]
* [https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/?product=cpcSDO&lat=38.234&lng=-118.666 CPC drought forecast]


====Consecutive Dry Days (CDD)====
Forecast of SPI or other drought indices may also be calculated using weather forecast data. Below is available forecast data from [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast (NMME)]<ref>'''''When using the NMME data,''' please cite the BAMS article describing the project (Kirtman et al. 2014) and in the acknowledgements please note that the NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. Please also acknowledge the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive. Thank you.''</ref> for making those calculations:


===Indices for Hydrological Drought===
(I can probably curate this dataset and have them available on our own server as they are important real-time forecast data)
====extreme low runoff====
====low flow days====
====Standardized runoff index (SRI)====
====Standardized streamflow index (SSI)====


===Indices for Agricultural and Ecological Drought===
* Seasonal Forecast: [https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/International/nmme/binary_seasonal/ binary format], [https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/International/nmme/seasonal_nmme_forecast_in_cpt_format/ cpt format], [https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/International/nmme/special/precip/seasonal/ ensemble mean forecast of precipitation], [https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/International/nmme/special/tmp2m/seasonal/ ensemble mean forecast of 2m temperature], [https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NMME/prob/netcdf/ probabilistic forecast in netcdf format]
====Soil Moisture (total and surface)====
* Monthly Forecast: [https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/International/nmme/binary_monthly/ binary format], [https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/International/nmme/monthly_nmme_forecast_in_cpt_format/ cpt format], [https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/International/nmme/special/precip/monthly/ ensemble mean forecast of precipitation],  [https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/International/nmme/special/tmp2m/monthly/ ensemble mean forecast of 2m temperature], [https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NMME/prob/netcdf/ probabilistic forecast in netcdf format]
====Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)====
====Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)====
====Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMA)====
====Standardized soil moisture index (SSMI)====


GIS data of outlooks of U.S. temperature and precipitation are also available for time scales ranging from weekly to seasonal (shapefile and raster): [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/index.php 6-10 Day], [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/814-day.php 8-14 Day], [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/week34.php Week 3-4], [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/seasonal.php Monthly and Seasonal].


====Palmer drought severity index (PDSI)===
=== Droughts in future climate ===
Add CMIP6 data and others


also add a page that introduce historical and future data in general.


== Other resources ==
'''The US Drought monitor'''


===Sample Data===
[https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx The US Drought Monitor (USDM)] is a comprehensive and collaborative effort by several federal agencies, including the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), among others. It provides up-to-date information and assessment of drought conditions across the United States. Additionally, agricultural commodities in drought is also provided.
<div style="margin-left: 170px;">
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Disaster Type'''
|'''Disaster Subype'''
|'''Location'''
|'''Total Deaths'''
|'''Total Affected'''


|-
'''National Integrated Drought Information System'''
|Drought
|Drought
|West and central states
|45
|0
|-
|Drought
|Drought
|Nationwide
|0
|0
|-
|Drought
|Drought
|Nation wide; Arizona, Nevada, California, Oregon and Texas
|136
|0
|}
</div>


===The US Drought monitor===
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA's) [https://www.drought.gov/ National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) program] is an integrated information system that coordinates drought monitoring, forecasting, planning, and information at federal, tribal, state, and local levels across the country. [https://www.drought.gov/documents/handbook-drought-indicators-and-indices The Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices] reviews the most commonly used drought indices/indicators.
The US Drought Monitor (USDM) is a comprehensive and collaborative effort by several federal agencies, including the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), among others. It provides up-to-date information and assessment of drought conditions across the United States.


<div style="border: 4px solid #aaa; padding: 7px;">
[https://drought.unl.edu/ '''National Drought Mitigation Center''']
'''Link for the US Drought Monitor Map (November 2023)''':  https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/MapArchive.aspx
</div>
<div style="border: 4px solid #aaa; padding: 7px;">
'''Dataset can be accessed here:''' https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k1YhIULXMt4URSIpeJfgfRbiee_YA7oXfl2_s6xfnpk/edit?usp=drive_link
</div>


==Deaths and Affected numbers on the basis of different Climatological disasters in USA from 2000-2023==
U.S. drought monitor and related products are listed [https://drought.unl.edu/Monitoring/DroughtMonitoringTools.aspx here]


<div style="margin-left: 275px;">
'''Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)'''
[[File:Droughtimg.jpg||Shows death and affected data for climatological disasters|500px]]
</div>


==The US Drought Monitor Map==
The [https://www.droughtmanagement.info/ IDMP] supports governments and other stakeholders at all levels on implementing Integrated Drought Management by providing policy, technical and management guidance and by sharing scientific knowledge and best practices. Specifically, [https://www.droughtmanagement.info/drought-monitors-and-products/ the Drought Monitors and Products]section lists existing tools and resources for monitoring drought conditions.


<div style="margin-left: 186px;">
'''Global Drought Information System'''
[[File:Monitor.png||Shows USDM Map|700px]]
</div>


==Reference==
https://gdis-noaa.hub.arcgis.com/


1. https://climatedata.imf.org/
=Notes=
(''Notes from Xiaojuan: List the sectors impacted by drought and create separate page for each sector; the webpage should be information on what and how climate hazards impact the sector''


2. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/06/california-americas-garden-is-drying-out/
=References=

Latest revision as of 15:52, 24 October 2024

Drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low precipitation that can lead to water shortages, impacting ecosystems, agriculture, water supply, and various human activities. It is a complex natural hazard with significant environmental, social, and economic consequences. Here are key aspects of drought:

Drought (Source: WMO[1])

Types of Drought

Depending on the variables used to characterize it and the systems or sectors being impacted, drought may be classified in different types, such as

  • Meteorological drought: Lack of rainfall or below-average precipitation for an extended period characterizes meteorological drought. This is the most common form of drought.
  • Hydrological drought: Hydrological drought refers to water shortage in streams or storages such as reservoirs, lakes, lagoons, and groundwater which usually occurs due to prolonged dry conditions.
  • Agricultural and ecological drought: Agricultural drought relates to soil moisture deficits that affect crop growth. It occurs when there's not enough water in the soil to meet the needs of crops.

Impacts of Drought

Drought has extensive impacts across multiple sectors, affecting ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, energy production, commerce, public health, and infrastructure stability[2].

  • Ecosystems and Biodiversity Changes in soil moisture and surface water can alter the rate of carbon uptake by ecosystems, affecting the carbon cycle and overall ecosystem health. They also alter suitable climate zones for wild species, potentially leading to habitat loss and changes in species distributions. The altered conditions can increase can increase the prevalence of pests and pathogen-carrying vectors. Prolonged dry conditions increase the risk of wildfires, as vegetation becomes more susceptible to ignition.
  • Agriculture Reduction in water availability challenges the water supplies needed for irrigation, affecting crop yields. Insufficient water can stress crops and forests, affecting crop quality. Severe water stress can lead to crop failure, especially during key developmental stages or extended drought periods. Drought can also contribute to insect outbreaks, increases in wildfire, and altered rates of carbon, nutrient, and water cycling—impacting agricultural production.
  • Livestock Drought can cause grain prices to spike, making it too expensive for ranchers to buy. This forces them to make critical decisions such as reducing herd sizes, sending cattle to feedlots, leasing additional pasture, or purchasing alternative feed like hay or grain.
  • Power and Energy (copied from drought.gov) Production of all types of energy, including electricity, requires water. Because the energy sector is dependent on water availability, drought can severely impact energy systems.
    • Thermoelectric electricity generation. Thermoelectric power plants use steam turbines to generate electricity using a variety of fuel sources. Large amounts of water are needed to generate steam and for cooling. Drought conditions can result in reduced plant efficiency and generation capacity and can also impact the supply chain for coal, natural gas, biofuel, and nuclear fuel.  
    • Hydroelectric power generation. Hydroelectric power is generated by funneling water through power plants contained in dam structures. When water levels in reservoirs become low, the force of water pressure required to turn hydro turbine blades is reduced, which affects productivity.
    • Hydraulic fracturing and refining. Reduced water availability affects the production and refining of petroleum and natural gas. During droughts, hydraulic fracturing (or fracking) and fuel refining operations can require alternative water supplies or may be forced to temporarily shut down. Shutdowns can increase costs, which in turn can raise consumer prices.
    • Biofuels. Reduced water availability and decreased soil moisture during drought can reduce the cultivation of biofuel feedstocks.
  • Manufacturing: Manufacturers use water for many processes, including fabrication, washing, cooling, and transporting goods. Water is also often incorporated into products themselves. Reductions in the amount of available water can reduce manufacturing productivity or even lead to temporary closures of key manufacturing facilities.
  • Navigation and Transportation Drought impacts port and waterway transportation and supply chains, resulting in increased transportation costs. Higher temperatures that often coexist with drought can impact roads, airport runways, and rail lines.
  • Recreation and Tourism Drought impacts various water-dependent activities like boating and skiing, leading to reduced revenues in tourism and recreation sectors. Increased wildfire risk during droughts further affects tourism by limiting access and deterring visitors due to safety concerns. Additionally, degraded water resources from drought can lower water quality and reduce streamflow, impacting hunting and fishing opportunities.
  • Public health Drought increases disease infection rates. Low flow volume and higher stream temperature during drought can lead to reduced dissolved oxygen, and more concentrated pollutants, posing health risks for human and aquatic life.
  • Water Utilities Drought can result in impacts to water utility operations, including:
    • Loss of water pressure and water supply
    • Poor water quality from the source that may require additional treatment to meet drinking water standards
    • Inability to access alternative and supplementary water sources because of high demand by and competition from other users
    • Increased customer demand
    • Increased costs and reduced revenues related to responding to drought impacts.
  • Infrastructure The alternation of dry and wet spells can lead to swelling and shrinkage of clay soils, causing structural damage to buildings.

Observed and Projected changes in Drought (TBA)

or called "How does CO2 increase impact drought"

Drought-related Data

Drought Indices and Indicators

Droughts are often analyzed using indices that are measures of drought severity, duration and frequency. There are many drought indices published in the scientific literature. The Integrated Drought Management Programme provides a comprehensive review of existing drought indices and indicators, evaluating them based on their ease of use and type. A download link for each indicator is also included. Climdex, led by the University of New South Wales in Sydney and involving partners across the globe, provides a list of useful indices and their relevance to each sector.

Below is a list of some of the most commonly used drought indices based on IPCC AR6 report[3], categorized according to the three drought types introduced earlier.

Indices Brief Introduction Data Access Recommended Usage
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used index to characterize meteorological drought on a range of timescales. It can characterize drought at different time scales which correspond with the time availability of different water resources (e.g. soil moisture, snowpack, groundwater, river discharge and reservoir storage). The SPI can be compared across regions with markedly different climates.[4] Meteorological/hydrological/ecological drought
Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) SPEI serves as a comprehensive drought index due to its multi-scalar nature, accommodating diverse scientific disciplines for detecting, monitoring, and analyzing droughts. SPEI assesses drought severity based on intensity and duration, identifying onset and cessation of drought episodes. Its versatility allows for comparative analysis across different climates and over time.[5] Ecological drought
Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) PDSI is a regional drought index commonly used for measuring the severity of drought conditions. It is a standardized index that ranges from -10 (dry) to +10 (wet), with >4 indicating extreme wet conditions and <-4 indicating extreme dry conditions.[6]

Self-calculating PDSI is not easy, as a multitude of computation is involved. Some open-source code is available online. Here is one from Jacobi et al. (2013)(see "Supporting Information" for the code).[7]

Meteorological and ecological drought
Standardized runoff index (SRI) SRI is used to characterize hydrological drought. Hydrological drought
FAO Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) ASIS monitors agricultural areas with a high likelihood of water stress/drought at global, regional and country level, using satellite technology. Agricultural drought
U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) USDM uses a multi-indicator drought index where it integrating several key drought monitoring that measure temperatures, soil moisture, water levels in streams and lakes, snow cover, and meltwater runoff. The map is released every Thursday, showing where drought is and how bad it is across the U.S. and its territories. The map uses six classifications: normal conditions, abnormally dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought: moderate (D1), severe (D2), extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4). Meteorological/hydrological/ecological drought
U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) The CEI evaluates the percent area of extremes in the distribution of much above/below average (top/bottom 10% of occurrence) temperatures, precipitation, drought, and tropical cyclone wind speed across the CONUS and is measured as the percent area of the U.S./region experiencing extremes for a given season.[8]
Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) Maximum number of consecutive dry days with less than 1 mm of precipitation per day A code for calculating CDD is provided by Earth System Model Evaluation Tool.
Standardized soil moisture index (SSMI) SSMI is calculated as the soil moisture content normalized by the recent past climatological values at each grid point. The soil moisture content can be the content integrated over the entire soil depth or just the surface layer. Note that soil moisture data in general has greater uncertainties compared to atmospheric data. Cautions should be used when using soil moisture index to assess the drought risk in future climate scenarios.

Drought Forecast

NOAA Climate Prediction Center provides monthly and seasonal drought outlook for the U.S. The corresponding GIS data can be downloaded.

Forecast of SPI or other drought indices may also be calculated using weather forecast data. Below is available forecast data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast (NMME)[9] for making those calculations:

(I can probably curate this dataset and have them available on our own server as they are important real-time forecast data)

GIS data of outlooks of U.S. temperature and precipitation are also available for time scales ranging from weekly to seasonal (shapefile and raster): 6-10 Day, 8-14 Day, Week 3-4, Monthly and Seasonal.

Droughts in future climate

Add CMIP6 data and others

also add a page that introduce historical and future data in general.

Other resources

The US Drought monitor

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) is a comprehensive and collaborative effort by several federal agencies, including the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), among others. It provides up-to-date information and assessment of drought conditions across the United States. Additionally, agricultural commodities in drought is also provided.

National Integrated Drought Information System

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA's) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) program is an integrated information system that coordinates drought monitoring, forecasting, planning, and information at federal, tribal, state, and local levels across the country. The Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices reviews the most commonly used drought indices/indicators.

National Drought Mitigation Center

U.S. drought monitor and related products are listed here

Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)

The IDMP supports governments and other stakeholders at all levels on implementing Integrated Drought Management by providing policy, technical and management guidance and by sharing scientific knowledge and best practices. Specifically, the Drought Monitors and Productssection lists existing tools and resources for monitoring drought conditions.

Global Drought Information System

https://gdis-noaa.hub.arcgis.com/

Notes

(Notes from Xiaojuan: List the sectors impacted by drought and create separate page for each sector; the webpage should be information on what and how climate hazards impact the sector

References

  1. ↑ Retrieved from https://wmo.int/topics/drought on Oct 24, 2024.
  2. ↑ https://www.drought.gov/sectors/
  3. ↑ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVI.pdf
  4. ↑ Keyantash, John & National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds). Last modified 2023-08-19 "The Climate Data Guide: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).” Retrieved from https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/standardized-precipitation-index-spi on 2024-07-19.
  5. ↑ https://spei.csic.es/home.html
  6. ↑ Dai, Aiguo & National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds). Last modified 2023-08-19 "The Climate Data Guide: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI).” Retrieved from https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/palmer-drought-severity-index-pdsi on 2024-07-17.
  7. ↑ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wrcr.20342
  8. ↑ Gleason, Karin & National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds). Last modified 2023-08-21 "The Climate Data Guide: U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI).” Retrieved from https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/us-climate-extremes-index-cei on 2024-07-19.
  9. ↑ When using the NMME data, please cite the BAMS article describing the project (Kirtman et al. 2014) and in the acknowledgements please note that the NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. Please also acknowledge the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive. Thank you.
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