Wildfires

Wildfires (Source: MIT Technology Review)

What is wildfire?

Wildfires are unplanned fires that occur in wildlands such as forest, rangelands or grasslands. They can occur naturally (ignited by lightning), or be caused by human activities such as campfires, faulty power lines, and burning crop residues. Other than those ignition sources, wildfires also need fuels and the proper meteorological condition to start and spread.

Fuels refer to anything that can burn, trees, bushes, grasses, fallen leaves. The availability of fuel is determined in large part by management practices and ecosystem processes and . For example, deforestation leaves behind slash, which are highly inflammable. Expansion of fire-resistant invasive annual grasses is one of the dominant factor in largely increasing the number, frequency, and severity of rangeland wildfires in the Northwest.

Meteorological conditions, specifically high temperature, low humidity, and wind play a significant role in triggering and sustaining a fire.

• Low Humidity: Low humidity levels dry out vegetation, making it more susceptible to ignition and promoting the rapid spread of fires.
• High Temperatures: Hot temperatures contribute to the drying of vegetation, creating favorable conditions for fires.
• Wind: Wind can carry embers over long distances, accelerate the spread of flames, and make firefighting efforts more challenging.

Wildfires under climate change

Wildfire activities have significantly increased in the past decades in Alaska and the western United States. Statistics show that the number of large fire occurrences, fire extent, fire severity, and fire season length have all increased since 1980. These changes are closely related to climate change both directly and indirectly.

Climate change drives increase in fire activity directly by inducing higher temperatures, reduced winter snowpack, earlier snowmelt, decreased summer precipitation, and increased evaporation. These conditions creates a more favorable condition for the start and spread of wildfires.

Indirectly, climate change drives those changes in wildfire by changing the ecosystems. For example, climate change degrades forest, creates conditions that favor the expansion of fire-resistant invasive species, and promotes beetle outbreaks that have killed millions of acres of trees and resulted in more flammable fuels.

As climate change continues, we can expect wildfire activity to increase, with rising temperatures and persistent droughts affecting wildland ecosystems​.

Impacts of wildfire

Wildfires have significant impacts on environment, human health, and infrastructure. (Drought has extensive impacts across multiple sectors, affecting ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, energy production, commerce, public health, and infrastructure stability.)

• Public Health Wildfire smoke, which contains various air pollutants, poses a major public health risk, primarily due to particulate matter (PM2.5). Inhalation of smoke and this fine particulate matter produced by wildfires causes respiratory issues. These issues can range from irritation of the respiratory system (nose, mouth, throat, and lungs) to serious problems like bronchitis or asthma. The lack of oxygen from inhaling smoke, humans can experience serious cardiovascular issues, including heart attack or heart failure, because of wildfires.
• Ecosystem and Biodiversity Wildfires will likely change the forests composition. Frequent fires can hinder the regeneration of certain tree species, allowing shrubs and grasses to dominate for extended periods. Frequent fire will also likely reduce the abundance of shade-tolerant species and gradually lead to forests dominated by fire-resistant species, such as Douglas-fir and western larch, instead of fire-susceptible species like western hemlock and subalpine fir. Additionally, increase in fire frequency will also likely result in more young forests as older, late-successional forests burn. Frequent fires will likely replace native plants by invasive annual grassland as invasive grasses produce many seeds and can reestablish more quickly after a wildfire. All these changes will change the number and composition of animal species that depend on forests or grasslands as their habitat, which, in turn, may affect the cultural values, as well as the experience of hunters, anglers, and recreationalists.

• Livestock: Wildfires impact livestock by disrupting grazing rotations, stocking rates, and rangeland management. They directly damage grazing land, often leading to the closure of public grazing allotments for several years to allow for restoration. This forces ranchers and rangeland managers to find alternative, often costly and time-consuming, sources of summer forage. Additionally, wildfires promote the expansion of invasive annual grasses, which outcompete native grasses that provide late-season forage, further reducing the availability of palatable forage for livestock.
• Water resources Wildfires can contaminate water quality and impact water supply within watersheds.They bring more sediments, eroded soil, ashes and debris from fires, as well as heavy metals and toxins into nearby water sources. These substances pollute the water and make it unsafe for human or animal consumption, as well as disrupt or destroy aquatic life. Additionally, decreased vegetation increases runoff, reduces groundwater recharge, and diminishes overall water availability.
• Buildings and other key infrastructures Though started in the wildland, wildfires can easily spread and cause large damages to both residential and industrial infrastructures. For example, the Camp Fire occurred in Northern California in November 2018 destroyed more than 18,000 structures, including nearly 14,000 homes, and significant damage to critical infrastructure such as power lines, roads, and communication networks. Roads and highways can also be impacted by the heat, flames, and falling debris and became impassable.
• Power and Energy Wildfires severely impact the power and energy sector by damaging or destroying energy infrastructure, such as power lines, power plants, transformers, and substations. They also disrupt operations through Public Safety Power Shutoffs. While these shutdowns effectively reduce the likelihood of ignition, they are extremely costly. For example, a study by a scholar at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment estimated that the PSPS in October 2019 cost California’s economy up to $2.5 billion.

Data

Historical Wildfire Data

Dataset	Description	Spatial Coverage	Temporal coverage	Data Access
Annual Incident Management Situation Report by The National Interagency Coordination Center	The annual Incident Management Situation Report by The National Interagency Coordination Center provides comprehensive statistics on various aspects, including burned areas, number of human-caused and lightning-caused fires, detailed suppression and mobilization cost. The following statistics are explicitly extracted and provided: US total burned areas and number of fires US total suppression cost Number of lightning-caused fires by geographic area Number of human-caused fires by geographic area Combined wildfire datasets for the US and certain territories 1878-2019	US	1983 to present	(see "Description")
Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product	Fire and smoke of the US compiled from satellite images by NOAA. Statistics such as fire and smoke frequency are also provided.	US		View;Access
MTBS database	MTBS multi-agency project maintains a database of wildfire occurrence and burned areas of the US from 1984 to present.	US	1984 to present	Access
Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS)	The statistics portal by Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) offers the number of fires, burned area, as well as their seasonal trend by country. Its Country Profile provides detailed information of numbers of fires, burned area, emission etc. by landcover class for all countries for years 2002-2023. Our World in Data visualizes some of these statistics in chart.	Global	2002 -2023	Access;
Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED)	Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) v4 provides global estimates of monthly burned area, monthly emissions and fractional contributions of different fire types. Data is at 0.25-degree resolution and is available from June 1995 through 2016.	Global	06/1995 - 2016	Access
Fire danger indices by European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS)	Fire danger indices at 0.25-degree produced by EFFIS. The EFFIS incorporates the fire danger indices for three different models developed in Canada, United States and Australia. This dataset is produced by the GEFF model, using the historical weather information of ERA5 reanalysis. Fourteen variables are provided for downloading, including fire weather index (Canadian rating) and fire danger index (Australian rating).	Global	1940 to present	Access; Python code for processing data; other useful resources
Fire weather index by European Environment Agency (EEA)	Forest fire danger in the present climate and projected changes under two climate change scenarios, with a spatial resolution of 25 km. Data are derived from the EURO-CORDEX runs. See more details here.	Europe	1981 - 2100	Access
Fire data provided by EEA	Areas burnt by wildfires between 2000 and 2017 Average forest fire danger between 1981 and 2010	Global	1981 - 2017
MODIS Active fire	Active fire data derived from satellite images. The MODIS active fire product detects fires in 1-km pixels that are burning at the time of overpass under relatively cloud-free conditions using a contextual algorithm. MODIS C6.1 is available from November 2000 (for Terra) and from July 2002 (for Aqua) to the present.	Global	2000 to present	Access; View
MODIS Burned area	Data derived from satellite images. MCD64A1 Version 6 Burned Area data product is a monthly, global gridded 500 meter (m) product containing per-pixel burned-area and quality information.	Global	2000 to present	Access; View
VIIRS Active fire	Data derived from satellite images at 375 m resolution.	Global	2012 to present	Access; View
VIIRS Burned area	Data derived from satellite images at 500 m resolution.	Global	2012 to present	Access; View

Forecast at Near-term (1-7 days ahead) to Seasonal Scale

Dataset	Description	Spatial Coverage	Temporal Coverage	Data Access
Fire danger forecast by EFFIS	Fire danger forecast produced by the GEFF model. Variables forecasted include fire weather index, initial spread index, build up index, burning index, and fire danger index.	Europe	1 day ahead	View; Access
7-day fire potential forecast	Fire potential forecast produced by a fire potential model by NICC. It is a function of fuel conditions, weather, and resource availability. It assesses the daily probability for occurrence of a new large fire and/or the daily potential for significant new growth on existing fires.	US	1-7 days ahead	View; Access
USGS fire danger forecast	This fire danger forecast (including fire potential index, large fire probability, fire spread probability) forecast is based on the Wildland Fire Potential Index (WFPI) forecast of USGS. WFPI is a numerical rating of fuel availability and ignitability, based on an assessment of the proportion of dead fuel loading and its dryness. It can be used to indicate the “combustibility” of the landscape, with increasing values indicating increasing potential for large fires, defined as fires that burn more than 500 acres. The forecast is produced by feeding satellite observations and weather forecast into a fuel model.	US	1-7 days ahead	View; Access
Seasonal fire potential outlookby NICC	Fire potential forecast produced by NICC at the monthly to seasonal scale.	US	1-4 months ahead	Access
FuleCast	FuelCast provides monthly fuel and fire forecasts during the growing season to help users stay up to date on fire danger. It is updated monthly during the growing season.		Monthly	Probably useful

Future Projection for One year and beyond

Dataset	Description	Spatial Coverage	Temporal Coverage	Data Access
CMIP6	Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides a comprehensive set of climate model simulations to understand past, present, and future climate changes. It is currently the leading state-of-the-art resource for future climate projections. The data can be downloaded from http://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. Navigating the data portal and finding the necessary variables can be challenging, so we provide some guidance below. The model resolution is coarser than 100 km for most models.	Global	2015 to 2100	Access
CORDEX	Note that the resolution of CMIP6 simulations (coarser than 100 km for most models) is usually too coarse for climate risk analysis and other downstream applications, the downscaled CMIP data using regional climate modeling by Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is also available. Note that no direct wildfire indicators are provided in the CORDEX data. Users will need to calculate these indicators using the available variables.	Regional		Access; CORDEX-CMIP5 data for North America; AWS link for EURO-CORDEX AWS link
HighResMIP	Higher-resolution (25 km) CMIP6-like simulations (HighResMIP) is also available for some models. Note that same as CORDEX, HighResMIP data has no direct wildfire indicators.	Global		Access
NARCCAP data	The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) also provides future projection simulations.			Access
Fire danger by EEA	Projected forest fire danger by EEA	Europe	2071-2100	Access
Fire weather index by European Environment Agency (EEA)	Forest fire danger in the present climate and projected changes under two climate change scenarios, with a spatial resolution of 25 km. Data are derived from the EURO-CORDEX runs. See more details here.	Europe	1981 - 2100	Access
Fire weather index by ANL	Projected fire weather index over the US by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) using Argonne’s downscaled 12km climate data.	US	up until 2050	View; Access
Great Basin Rangeland Fire Probability Map	It represents the relative probability of large (> 1,000 acres) rangeland fire given an ignition in a given year. Maps are updated yearly.	Great basin of the US	one year ahead	Access

Instructions for Downloading CMIP6 Fire Data

CMIP6 is currently the leading state-of-the-art resource for future climate projections. The data can be downloaded from http://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. Navigating the data portal and finding the necessary variables can be challenging, so we provide some guidance below:

Filter with Facets	Value	Explanation
Classifications --> Realm	"land"	land component of CMIP6 model
Classifications --> Variable ID	"burntFractionAll"	burnt area fraction
Identifiers --> Experiment ID	"esm-hist" or "hist"	historical simulation
	"esm-piControl" or "piControl"	pre-industrial simulation
	"SSP119"	1.5 degree Paris Agreement goal
	"SSP126"	sustainable pathway
	"SSP245"	middle of the road
	"SSP585"	fossil fuel-rich development
Resolutions --> Nominal Resolution	choose your desired option from the available selections after applying the above filters.

Pre-existing Fire Risk Data

• Spatial datasets of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the United States (270m) (3rd Edition)by USDA
• Fire hazard severity zone of California by FEMA

Fire-related Loss or fatality data

• Fatalities associated with wildfire in Europe (1981-2022)

Other resources

• National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) provides comprehensive information on wildfire management and coordination among various agencies in the United States, including useful maps of the historical and current fires.
• National Interagency Coordination Center serves as the focal point for coordinating the mobilization of resources to wildland fires and other incidents throughout the United States. It also provides Predictive Services related products.
• U.S. Forest Service (USFS) offers extensive resources on wildfire prevention, suppression, and research, including detailed reports and data.
• Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses satellite data to provide near real-time active fire data and tools for monitoring wildfires globally.
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Wildfire offers information on wildfire weather, satellite imagery, and forecasting tools to support wildfire management and research.
• Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS): A joint initiative by the European Commission and partners providing global wildfire information, including risk assessments, historical data, and monitoring tools.
  • Wildfire management in Latin American and Caribbean by GWIS
  • Pan-Europe wildfire risk assessment by EFFIS
  • https://forest-fire.emergency.copernicus.eu/EFFIS
• The Rangeland Analysis Platform is an online tool that visualizes and analyzes vegetation data (including annual forb and grass coverage) for the United States, including the Northwest.
• Other datasets:
  • Sheehan et al. 2015: Fire variables such as burned area, fire interval simulated by a dynamic vegetation model
  • Abatzoglou and Brown et al. 2011: Energy Release Component and Fire Danger Index produced by statistical downscaling methods