Wildfires

What is wildfire?

According to USDA, "Wildfires are unplanned fires that occur in wildlands such as forest, rangelands or grasslands. These extreme events are common in the Western U.S., usually occurring in summer and fall. Wildfire season is defined by the dates of the first large fire and the last large fire control. Since the 1970s, the wildfire season in western states has extended from 5 months to over 7 months in length. Since the 1980s, the annual number of large fires and area burned has significantly increased, with a sizable proportion of the increase in fire activity occurring in the forests of the Northern Rocky Mountains, followed by forests in the Pacific northwest and southwest. In addition, the average burn time of individual fires has grown from 6 days between 1973 and 1982, to 52 days between 2003 and 2012. Increases in large fire activity and area burned have been driven by rising temperatures, reduced winter snowpack, earlier snowmelt, reduced summer precipitation and increased evaporation. Under climate change we can expect the wildfire activity to increase as temperatures continue to warm, lengthening the fire season further, and as drought continues to afflict wildland ecosystems."

Impacts of wildfire

Impacts to human health and safety: Larger, more frequent wildfires threaten human safety, infrastructure, and livelihoods. For example, in 2023, the Wanes Gray Fire near Medical Lake, Washington burned through rangeland and timber, destroying 259 structures, and burning over 10,000 acres. In 2015, the Soda Fire burned nearly 280,000 acres in southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon, including 200,000 acres of greater sage-grouse habitat and portions of 41 grazing allotments. Fires of this size are becoming more common in the inland Northwest.

Wildfire smoke impacts human health. Smoke degrades air quality, and can severely affect the health of children, the elderly, pregnant individuals, and individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can also reduce water quality. After a fire, runoff and erosion can increase substantially. This can lead to sedimentation and chemical changes that degrade the quality of aquatic habitat and drinking water.

Loss of sagebrush habitat and conversion to invasive annual grassland: Cheatgrass and other invasive annual grasses produce many seeds and can reestablish very quickly after a wildfire. Native plants like sagebrush and perennial bunchgrasses require more time to reestablish and produce seeds. This leads to a positive feedback loop between invasive annual grasses and wildfire: fire makes room for more cheatgrass, which encourages more fire and so on. Because frequent wildfires make sagebrush recovery nearly impossible, over time, this positive feedback loop can lead to a conversion of sagebrush landscapes to invasive annual grasslands.

Loss of wildlife habitat: Greater sage-grouse (the largest grouse in North America) depend on sagebrush for breeding habitat and forage. More frequent and severe wildfires can reduce sage-grouse habitat. Since 1984, over 22 million acres of sage-grouse habitat have burned in the Great Basin. If current fire trends continue, half of the sage-grouse population in the Great Basin could be gone by the mid-2040s. Other species that are affected by sagebrush habitat reduction include pygmy rabbits, sage thrashers, and sharp-tailed grouse. Loss of wildlife habitat can affect cultural values, and impact the experience of hunters, anglers, and recreationalists.

Impacts to livestock operations: Both wildfire and annual grasses can impact yearly livestock grazing rotations, stocking rates, and rangeland management. Though invasive annual grasses can provide forage for a short period in spring, they dry out quickly and become unpalatable to livestock. Because they outcompete native grasses that are palatable later in the season, invasive annual grasses reduce the availability of late-season forage. The increasing frequency and severity of rangeland fires can also reduce forage amounts. Following a wildfire, public grazing allotments can be closed for several years to allow restoration of burned areas. In these conditions, ranchers and rangeland managers must find alternate sources of summer forage, which can be expensive and time consuming.

Impacts to rangeland carbon sequestration potential: The combination of the invasive grass-fire cycle and the loss of woody plants like sagebrush suggest that less carbon can be stored in annual grass-dominated ecosystems than sagebrush systems. Conversion of deep-rooted perennial systems to shallow-rooted annual grasses can result in the loss of persistent below-ground carbon. Because most of the carbon stored in rangeland systems is stored in the soil, losing below-ground carbon has serious implications for rangeland carbon storage potential.

Wildfire-related risk analysis

Wildfire data

Historical data

Real-time monitoring data

Forecast data (or called "daily to seasonal scale forecast")

Future projection

The Rangeland Analysis Platform is an online tool that visualizes and analyzes vegetation data (including annual forb and grass coverage) for the United States, including the Northwest.

Great Basin Rangeland Fire Probability Map represents the relative probability of large (> 1,000 acres) rangeland fire given an ignition in a given year. Maps are updated yearly.

FuelCast provides monthly fuel and fire forecasts during the growing season to help users stay up to date on fire danger. It is updated monthly during the growing season.

How does fire make an impact?

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Wildfires, also known as forest fires or bushfires, typically occur when a combination of factors creates conditions conducive to the ignition and rapid spread of flames. Wildfires occur due to combination of the following:
1. Wildfires begin with an ignition source, which can be human-caused or natural. Common human-caused ignition sources include discarded cigarettes, campfires left unattended, equipment sparks, power lines, and arson. Natural ignition sources include lightning strikes.
2. Fuel- Fuel refers to the vegetation, such as grass, shrubs, trees, and other flammable materials, that provides the substance for the fire to burn. The type, amount, and moisture content of the fuel play a crucial role in determining the intensity and spread of a wildfire.
3. Weather conditions strongly influence the behavior of wildfires. Factors such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction play significant roles.

• Low Humidity: Low humidity levels dry out vegetation, making it more susceptible to ignition and promoting the rapid spread of fires.
• High Temperatures: Hot temperatures contribute to the drying of vegetation, creating favorable conditions for fires.
• Wind: Wind can carry embers over long distances, accelerate the spread of flames, and make firefighting efforts more challenging.

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Wildfires at Umatilla National Forest

Wildfire Data Analysis

U.S. Wildfire statistics:

• Wildfires and Acres (burned areas and number of fires)
• Suppression Cost
• (Incident management situation report) by National Interagency Coordination Center has a lot of statistics. LLM or even some simple coding is useful in extracting this resources

Global fire statistics:

• burned area by country
• number of fires by country
• seasonal trend

Geospatial Data:

• Active fires (MODIS and VIIRS)
• Burnt Areas (MODIS and VIIRS NRT)
• Monthly and seasonal forecast of temperature and precipitation by regions
• Fire danger forecast (+1 day)
• Historical data:
• ourworldindata
• combined wildfire datasets for the US and certain territories 1878-2019
• wildfire risk data: EFFIS Wildfire Risk Viewer (copernicus.eu)
• EU and LAC collaboration

Fire forecast:

• fire weather outlook
• 7-day fire potential forecast
• 7-day fire outlook; documentation of the fire potential model
• fire danger forecast by USGS
  • fire potential index
  • 7-day forecast

Current Situation Viewer: [1]

Resources:

• National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)
  • Description: Provides comprehensive information on wildfire management and coordination among various agencies in the United States, including useful maps of the historical and current fires.
• U.S. Forest Service (USFS)
  • Description: Offers extensive resources on wildfire prevention, suppression, and research, including detailed reports and data.
• Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
  • Description: Uses satellite data to provide near real-time active fire data and tools for monitoring wildfires globally.
• Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS): A joint initiative by the European Commission and partners providing global wildfire information, including risk assessments, historical data, and monitoring tools.
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Wildfire
  • Description: Offers information on wildfire weather, satellite imagery, and forecasting tools to support wildfire management and research.

The Wildfire dataset encompasses occurrences of wildfires across the USA spanning from 2000 to 2023. The dataset includes information on the total count of deaths and the number of individuals affected, providing quantitative insights.

Sample Data

Disaster Type	Disaster Subype	Location	Total Deaths	Total Affected
Wildfire	Forest fire	Gainesville, Alachua areas (Alachua district, Florida province), Lafayette, Gulf districts (Florida province)	0	600
Wildfire	Forest fire	Los Alamos, Rio Arriba, Sandoval, Santa Fe districts (New Mexico province)	0	25400
Wildfire	Forest fire	Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wyoming, Florida, North Dakota provinces	14	1000

Access the whole dataset here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L_EbjiHZYTChjEllwEG0LX_4HavbomD3/edit#gid=1887285575

Deaths and Affected numbers on the basis of different Climatological disasters in USA from 2000-2023

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References

1. https://climatedata.imf.org/