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[[File:marine_heatwaves2.jpg|thumb|500px|Marine heatwaves (Source: IUCN<ref>Retrieved from https://iucn.org/resources/issues-brief/marine-heatwaves on October 24, 2024. </ref>)]]
== Overview ==
== Overview ==
Marine heatwaves are periods of persistent anomalously warm ocean temperatures, which can have significant impacts on marine life as well as coastal communities and economies. Causes of marine heat waves.  
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm ocean temperature that persist for days to months, extend over thousands of kilometers, and penetrate multiple hundreds of meters into the deep ocean<ref name=":0">Collins M., M. Sutherland, L. Bouwer, S.-M. Cheong, T. Frölicher, H. Jacot Des Combes, M. Koll Roxy, I. Losada, K. McInnes, B. Ratter, E. Rivera-Arriaga, R.D. Susanto, D. Swingedouw, and L. Tibig, 2019: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risk. In: ''IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate'' [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 589-655. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.008</nowiki>.</ref>. These extreme high temperatures can cause billions of dollars' economic losses by negatively impacting the critical ocean ecosystems (Figure 1).  


Marine heatwaves have become an urgent issue regarding climate risks due to their proliferation in frequency, duration, magnitude, and spatial extent. These phenomena have a strong impact not only at the global and regional level (e.g., substantial events in the Northeast Pacific (2013-15), Mediterranean Sea (2003) and Tasman Sea (2015/16 and 2017/18)), but also at the local level. In this sense, MHWs have become an increasingly serious threat not just from the perspective of pelagic and benthic ecology on the continental shelf but also for coastal aquaculture and fisheries, as demonstrated by many reports of fisheries closures from around the world caused by MHWs. It is noteworthy that estuaries, in particular, represent environments with high productivity and biodiversity that sustain important economic activities like aquaculture and fisheries.
Over the past three decades, MHWs have adversely affected marine organisms and ecosystems in all ocean basins, including critical foundation species like corals, seagrasses, and kelp. They have led to widespread coral bleaching and mortality, dieback of kelp forests and seagrasses, and harmful algal blooms<ref name=":0" /><ref name=":1" />. The disruption of these foundation species destabilizes food webs, leading to significant consequences for fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism industries that depend on them. For example, the prolonged MHW over the northeast Pacific in 2014 severely disrupted the food web, resulting in mass mortalities of California sea lions, seals, seabirds, and marine invertebrates (Smith et al. 2021)<ref name=":1" />. The associated harmful algal blooms led to the closure of recreational razor clamming, causing a $40 million loss in tourist spending in Washington State. Similarly, the closure of commercial Dungeness crab fishing on the West Coast resulted in a total loss of $97.5 million. Additionally, the population decline of red sea urchins due to kelp loss led to the closure of their commercial fishery, resulting in an annual loss of $3 million<ref name=":1" />.
[[File:Screenshot 2024-09-03 at 1.20.52 PM.png|thumb|center|700px|Figure 1 Impact and economic loss of marine heatwaves]]


MHWs have also been shown to reduce the productivity or cause mortality of economically important species, such as lobster and snow crab in the northwest Atlantic and scallops off Western Australia<ref>https://www.marineheatwaves.org/mhw-impacts.html</ref>. For more information on the impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity, please visit the [[Biodiversity Loss]] page on the CRL wiki. 


Impacts: Major MHWs have had significant impacts on a wide range of species, from plankton to fish to sea birds, by affecting biological processes such as growth, reproduction and survival (Smale et al. 2019). For example, the ‘Blob’ – a massive long-lasting MHW that developed in the northeast Pacific in 2014 – disrupted the entire foodweb and led to mass die offs of sea birds and mammals (Smith et al. 2021). Rogue animals can also find their way well outside their normal range, following the warm waters of a MHW, such as this tropical fish found off Tasmania during the 2015/16 event. Attach the picture as well <ref>https://www.marineheatwaves.org/mhw-impacts.html</ref>
Marine heatwaves have become an urgent climate risk due to their increasing frequency, duration, intensity, and spatial extent. The number of MHW days doubled between 1982 and 2016<ref>[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0383-9 Frölicher, T.L., Fischer, E.M. & Gruber, N. Marine heatwaves under global warming. ''Nature'' 560, 360–364 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9]</ref>, with these events becoming more prolonged, intense, and widespread—8 of the 10 most severe recorded MHWs have occurred in the past decade<ref name=":1">[https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj3593#editor-abstract Smith, Kathryn E., et al. "Socioeconomic impacts of marine heatwaves: Global issues and opportunities." ''Science'' 374.6566 (2021): eabj3593.]</ref>. Projections indicate that MHWs will continue to intensify with global warming. Climate models suggest that by 2081-2100, the frequency of MHWs could increase by approximately 50 times under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) and 20 times under the low-emission scenario (RCP2.6) relative to 1850–1900. The intensity of MHWs is projected to increase about tenfold under RCP8.5 by 2081–2100 compared to the 1850–1900 baseline<ref name=":0" />.     
 
== Data ==
Impact of global warming:  


== How have marine heatwaves changed? ==
=== How to measure marine heatwaves ===
The oceans are warming at an unprecedented rate. Global sea surface temperatures have warmed by nearly 1°C since 1900 (IPCC AR6). This warming in turn increases the likelihood of MHWs occurring. While ecosystems have evolved within a certain coping range, and can adapt to conditions slightly outside that range, MHWs manifest as extreme events that lead to ecosystem vulnerabilities. In a warmer climate we are more likely to experience these vulnerability-causing extremes.
Hobday et al. (2016)<ref>Hobday, Alistair J., Lisa V. Alexander, Sarah E. Perkins, Dan A. Smale, Sandra C. Straub, Eric CJ Oliver, Jessica A. Benthuysen et al. "A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves." ''Progress in oceanography'' 141 (2016): 227-238.</ref> developed a widely adopted definition of marine heatwaves (MHWs). According to this definition, an MHW is a period during which seawater temperatures exceed a seasonally varying threshold (typically the 90th percentile) for at least five consecutive days. Successive events with gaps of two days or less are considered part of the same MHW. Here are links to code implementations of the MHW definition by Hobday et al. (2016) in [https://github.com/ecjoliver/marineHeatWaves Python] and [https://robwschlegel.github.io/heatwaveR/index.html R].


== what about the future? ==
As a general guideline, an anomaly of 1 degree Celsius (roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit) off the coast of California can indicate a marine heatwave, while anomalies of 2-3 degrees Celsius (approximately 4-6 degrees Fahrenheit) are indicative of more extreme marine heatwave events<ref>https://scripps.ucsd.edu/research/climate-change-resources/californias-marine-heatwaves</ref>.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th assessment report projects that the global ocean will continue to warm well into the 21st century. The warming in the upper ocean is projected to be between 0.5°C and 2.5°C by 2100. We can therefore expect a continuation, and possibly acceleration, of the historic warming-driven changes in MHWs. Ultimately, without improved global action to tackle climate change, the oceans will continue to warm leading to more intense and frequent MHWs, with consequences for marine life and human societies.  


== Data ==
=== Relevant datasets to calculate marine heatwaves ===
Definition of MHW: Our group developed a definition of MHWs (Hobday et al. 2016), which has been widely adopted by researchers and other users. A MHW is defined as a period when seawater temperatures exceed a seasonally-varying threshold (usually the 90th percentile) for at least 5 consecutive days. Successive events with gaps of 2 days or less are considered part of the same MHW. In a subsequent study (Hobday et al. 2018) we extended the definition to introduce categories of severity, based on multiples of the threshold being exceeded.   <ref>https://www.marineheatwaves.org/mhw-overview.html</ref>


Historical:  
* [https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html NOAA OI SST] from 1982, a gridded high-resolution (0.25 degree) daily global sea surface temperature dataset from NOAA that continues to present.


Observations: MHW tracker:  
* [https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html NOAA ERSST V5] from 1865, a gridded (2.0 degree) consistently analyzed monthly global sea surface temperature dataset from NOAA that continues to present.
* [https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/metadata/landing-page/bin/iso?id=gov.noaa.nodc:AOML-GDP-1hr NOAA - hourly position, current, and sea surface temperature] from drifters from 1987 (AWS data access [https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-oar-hourly-gdp/ here]).


past events of California MHW: https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/regions/california-current/california-current-marine-heatwave-tracker-blobtracker
=== Current observations ===


* [https://www.marineheatwaves.org/tracker.html Marine heatwave tracker] by Marine Heatwave International Working Group
* [https://psl.noaa.gov/marine-heatwaves/# Marine heatwave observations] by NOAA


=== Past California current marine heatwave events ===


=== SST Datasets at PSL<ref>https://psl.noaa.gov/marine-heatwaves/#</ref> ===
* [https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_MHW_EV.htmlTable Detailed information] (i.e., size, duration, distance from shore) of past marine heatwave events
* [https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/projects/mhw/videos Animations] of yearly sea surface temperature anoamlies


* NOAA OI SST Daily High Resolution. From 1982, a gridded high resolution daily dataset from NOAA that continues to present.
=== Forecasts ===
* NOAA ERSST V5 From 1865, a gridded consistently analyzed monthly dataset from NOAA that continues to present. V3 and V4 are also available
* COBE SST
* COBE-2 SST
* ICOADS
* Kaplan SST
* NOAA OI V2
* NODC 1994 and 1998 atlasses


* [https://psl.noaa.gov/marine-heatwaves/# Forecasts up to 11.5 months ahead] by Jacox et al. (2002)<ref>Jacox, M.G., Alexander, M.A., Amaya, D. ''et al.'' Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves. ''Nature'' 604, 486–490 (2022). <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04573-9</nowiki></ref>


Forecast:
== References ==

Latest revision as of 19:44, 24 October 2024

Marine heatwaves (Source: IUCN[1])

Overview

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm ocean temperature that persist for days to months, extend over thousands of kilometers, and penetrate multiple hundreds of meters into the deep ocean[2]. These extreme high temperatures can cause billions of dollars' economic losses by negatively impacting the critical ocean ecosystems (Figure 1).

Over the past three decades, MHWs have adversely affected marine organisms and ecosystems in all ocean basins, including critical foundation species like corals, seagrasses, and kelp. They have led to widespread coral bleaching and mortality, dieback of kelp forests and seagrasses, and harmful algal blooms[2][3]. The disruption of these foundation species destabilizes food webs, leading to significant consequences for fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism industries that depend on them. For example, the prolonged MHW over the northeast Pacific in 2014 severely disrupted the food web, resulting in mass mortalities of California sea lions, seals, seabirds, and marine invertebrates (Smith et al. 2021)[3]. The associated harmful algal blooms led to the closure of recreational razor clamming, causing a $40 million loss in tourist spending in Washington State. Similarly, the closure of commercial Dungeness crab fishing on the West Coast resulted in a total loss of $97.5 million. Additionally, the population decline of red sea urchins due to kelp loss led to the closure of their commercial fishery, resulting in an annual loss of $3 million[3].

Figure 1 Impact and economic loss of marine heatwaves

MHWs have also been shown to reduce the productivity or cause mortality of economically important species, such as lobster and snow crab in the northwest Atlantic and scallops off Western Australia[4]. For more information on the impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity, please visit the Biodiversity Loss page on the CRL wiki.

Marine heatwaves have become an urgent climate risk due to their increasing frequency, duration, intensity, and spatial extent. The number of MHW days doubled between 1982 and 2016[5], with these events becoming more prolonged, intense, and widespread—8 of the 10 most severe recorded MHWs have occurred in the past decade[3]. Projections indicate that MHWs will continue to intensify with global warming. Climate models suggest that by 2081-2100, the frequency of MHWs could increase by approximately 50 times under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) and 20 times under the low-emission scenario (RCP2.6) relative to 1850–1900. The intensity of MHWs is projected to increase about tenfold under RCP8.5 by 2081–2100 compared to the 1850–1900 baseline[2].

Data

How to measure marine heatwaves

Hobday et al. (2016)[6] developed a widely adopted definition of marine heatwaves (MHWs). According to this definition, an MHW is a period during which seawater temperatures exceed a seasonally varying threshold (typically the 90th percentile) for at least five consecutive days. Successive events with gaps of two days or less are considered part of the same MHW. Here are links to code implementations of the MHW definition by Hobday et al. (2016) in Python and R.

As a general guideline, an anomaly of 1 degree Celsius (roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit) off the coast of California can indicate a marine heatwave, while anomalies of 2-3 degrees Celsius (approximately 4-6 degrees Fahrenheit) are indicative of more extreme marine heatwave events[7].

Relevant datasets to calculate marine heatwaves

  • NOAA OI SST from 1982, a gridded high-resolution (0.25 degree) daily global sea surface temperature dataset from NOAA that continues to present.

Current observations

Past California current marine heatwave events

  • Detailed information (i.e., size, duration, distance from shore) of past marine heatwave events
  • Animations of yearly sea surface temperature anoamlies

Forecasts

References

  1. ↑ Retrieved from https://iucn.org/resources/issues-brief/marine-heatwaves on October 24, 2024.
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Collins M., M. Sutherland, L. Bouwer, S.-M. Cheong, T. Frölicher, H. Jacot Des Combes, M. Koll Roxy, I. Losada, K. McInnes, B. Ratter, E. Rivera-Arriaga, R.D. Susanto, D. Swingedouw, and L. Tibig, 2019: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risk. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 589-655. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.008.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Smith, Kathryn E., et al. "Socioeconomic impacts of marine heatwaves: Global issues and opportunities." Science 374.6566 (2021): eabj3593.
  4. ↑ https://www.marineheatwaves.org/mhw-impacts.html
  5. ↑ Frölicher, T.L., Fischer, E.M. & Gruber, N. Marine heatwaves under global warming. Nature 560, 360–364 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9
  6. ↑ Hobday, Alistair J., Lisa V. Alexander, Sarah E. Perkins, Dan A. Smale, Sandra C. Straub, Eric CJ Oliver, Jessica A. Benthuysen et al. "A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves." Progress in oceanography 141 (2016): 227-238.
  7. ↑ https://scripps.ucsd.edu/research/climate-change-resources/californias-marine-heatwaves
  8. ↑ Jacox, M.G., Alexander, M.A., Amaya, D. et al. Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves. Nature 604, 486–490 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04573-9
Retrieved from "http://climateriskwiki.uw.edu/index.php?title=Marine_Heatwaves&oldid=1703"